Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting4-5
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-3
- Brayan BelloPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa walked, Contreras scored, Wong to second, Durbin to third.4–2
- 5Arcia reached on infield single to shortstop, Martin scored, Bell to second.4–1
- 5Red Sox challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Trevor Larnach scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.3–1
- 4Rafaela doubled to right, Gasper scored, Contreras thrown out at home.2–1
- 1Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Larnach scored.2–0
- 1Martin doubled to left, Buxton scored, Larnach to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML MIN +109 / BOS -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jovani Moran: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +51 Elo | BOS 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 8–1530th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15067th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–25 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 10–20 |
| Underdog | 20–15 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–19–5 | 22–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 12–11 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.