Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Drew RomoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Romo homered to right (352 feet), Peters scored.1–3
- 1Murakami homered to right (375 feet).1–1
- 1Lee homered to left (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 51%
- ML MIN -105 / CHW -114
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.1%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.0 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +8 Elo | CHW 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 14–109th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 146327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–25 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20–5 | 31–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 26–13 CHW in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 39.