Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Giants- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to left center (384 feet).3–10
- 5Bader homered to center (425 feet), Chapman scored, Susac scored and Eldridge scored.3–9
- 5Schmitt homered to left (396 feet), Arraez scored.3–5
- 5Vargas doubled to center, Antonacci scored.3–3
- 5Antonacci grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peters scored, Romo out at second.2–3
- 5Romo singled to right, Kelenic scored, Peters to third.1–3
- 4Susac singled to left, Devers scored and Chapman scored.0–3
- 4Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to right, Arraez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML CHW -103 / SF -117
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SF: Elo 52.2%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -106
- CHW +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −6 | CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 10–1326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–23 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 29–20–1 | 23–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–5 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.