Chicago White Sox at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vargas homered to left (378 feet).5–8
- 5Devers homered to left center (391 feet), Adames scored, Arraez scored and Schmitt scored.4–8
- 5Quero singled to left, Vargas scored.4–4
- 5Montgomery grounded out to second, Murakami scored, Antonacci to second, Vargas to third.3–4
- 4Acuña hit sacrifice fly to right, Quero scored, Hill to third.2–4
- 3Schmitt homered to left center (398 feet), Arraez scored.1–4
- 1Devers doubled to center, Schmitt scored.1–2
- 1Schmitt doubled to right, Adames scored.1–1
- 1Meidroth homered to left center (371 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML CHW +103 / SF -124
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SF: Elo 56.2%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -112
- CHW +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −3 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +43 Elo | SF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 11–1324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301465 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–24 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20–1 | 24–25–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–6 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.