Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Busch singled to right, Swanson scored, Hoerner to third.10–4
- 7Conforto homered to right center (395 feet), Suzuki scored.9–4
- 7Happ homered to right (370 feet), Busch scored and Bregman scored.7–4
- 4Griffin homered to right (369 feet).4–4
- 4Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Swanson scored.4–3
- 3Lowe homered to right (387 feet), Rodríguez scored and Horwitz scored.3–3
- 2Hoerner singled to right, Kelly scored, Swanson to third.3–0
- 1Happ singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored, Busch to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML CHC +104 / PIT -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.4%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +25 Elo | CHC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 15–1314th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 7th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–34 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 0–10 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–22–5 | 28–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 28–16 PIT in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 44.