Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-4
- Jordan WicksPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Esmerlyn ValdezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ozuna singled to center, Gonzales scored.1–12
- 8Mangum grounded out to third, Triolo scored.1–11
- 7Horwitz homered to right (359 feet).1–10
- 6Griffin scored on error, Reynolds safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Bregman, Reynolds safe at second on error.1–9
- 5Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to center, Gonzales scored, Valdez to second, Cruz to third.1–8
- 5Valdez walked, Reynolds scored, Cruz to second, Gonzales to third.1–7
- 5Gonzales singled to right, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.1–6
- 2Happ doubled to center, Bregman scored.1–5
- 1Valdez homered to center (415 feet), Cruz scored.0–5
- 1Cruz singled to left, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 1Reynolds doubled to left, Griffin scored and Lowe scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML CHC +114 / PIT -137
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +16 Elo | CHC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 14–1316th of 30 |
| 5th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–33 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22–5 | 27–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 28–15 PIT in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 43.