Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Victor CaratiniBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Bell scored.2–6
- 5Kreidler grounded out to shortstop, Arcia scored, Gray to third.1–6
- 4Murakami doubled to shortstop, Antonacci scored.0–6
- 3Grichuk doubled to right, Montgomery scored, Peters scored and Meidroth scored.0–5
- 3Peters reached on infield single to shortstop, Murakami scored, Meidroth to second, Montgomery to third.0–2
- 1Montgomery singled to center, Vargas scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 61%
- ML MIN +144 / CHW -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CHW: Elo 55.3%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- CHW -155
- MIN +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +22 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +37 Elo | CHW 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 16–118th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 146728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–27 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21–5 | 33–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 27–15 CHW in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 42.