Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cubs challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Alex Bregman reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.7–2
- 8Amaya walked, Suzuki scored on a passed ball by Davis, Conforto to third on passed ball by Davis.6–2
- 8Happ homered to right center (403 feet), Bregman scored.5–2
- 6Callihan doubled to center, Garcia scored.3–2
- 6Reynolds homered to right (400 feet).3–1
- 6Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bregman scored, Happ out at second.3–0
- 6Happ reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored on throwing error by shortstop Triolo, Bregman safe at third on error.2–0
- 4Suzuki singled to left, Busch scored, Happ to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML CHC +144 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.5%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- PIT -155
- CHC +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +5 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.55th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 15–1414th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 5th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–34 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–23 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 29–22–5 | 29–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 29–16 PIT in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 45.