Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jake MangumBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bell fouled out to first, Kreidler scored, Lee to second, Buxton to third.9–10
- 8Lee walked, Keaschall scored, Buxton to second, Kreidler to third.8–10
- 7Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored, Triolo to third.7–10
- 7Triolo singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Mangum to third.7–9
- 5Mangum singled to left, Griffin scored, Rodríguez to third.7–8
- 4Clemens singled to right, Bell scored.7–7
- 4Bell doubled to left, Buxton scored and Gray scored.6–7
- 4Gray doubled to center, Arcia scored and Keaschall scored.4–7
- 3Clemens tripled to center, Buxton scored.2–7
- 2Cruz homered to center (420 feet), Reynolds scored and Gonzales scored.1–7
- 2Gonzales singled to right, Horwitz scored and Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.1–4
- 2Mangum homered to right center (410 feet).1–2
- 2Caratini doubled to left, Clemens scored.1–1
- 1Horwitz homered to right (408 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML MIN +128 / PIT -154
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.3%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +37 Elo | PIT 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 16–1516th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 149315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21–6 | 31–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–5 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.