Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Twins- Luke KeaschallBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Connor PrielippPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meidroth reached on infield single to third, Acuña scored, Gonzalez to third.4–6
- 5Keaschall singled to left, Bell scored, Larnach to second.3–6
- 4Jackson singled to right, Gray scored.3–5
- 4Gray singled to left, Martin scored and Keaschall scored, Gray to second.3–4
- 4Keaschall singled to left, Larnach scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.3–2
- 3Lee hit sacrifice fly to left, Gray scored.3–1
- 3Vargas singled to left, Meidroth scored and Grichuk scored.3–0
- 3Acuña scored on throwing error by catcher Jackson.1–0
- 3Acuña scored on throwing error by catcher Jackson.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML CHW -125 / MIN +104
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CHW: Elo 53.2%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- CHW -113
- MIN +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.1 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −20 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 1.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Connor Prielipp: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +22 Elo | CHW 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 16–1416th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301472 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 35–23–2 | 34–21–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–28 MIN in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 44.