Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee homered to right (393 feet).3–9
- 6Lee homered to right (358 feet), Jackson scored.2–9
- 5Davis singled to left, Cruz scored and Gonzales scored, Triolo to second.0–9
- 5Mangum hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.0–7
- 5Cruz walked, Lowe scored, Gonzales to second, Reynolds to third.0–6
- 5Lowe singled to right, Horwitz scored.0–5
- 3Gonzales homered to center (407 feet), Reynolds scored.0–4
- 2Triolo singled to right, Cruz scored, Mangum to third.0–2
- 2O'Hearn homered to right (354 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML MIN +139 / PIT -168
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -150
- MIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +44 Elo | PIT 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 17–1513th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 26th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–21–6 | 32–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.