Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- David SandlinPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Twins- Tristan GrayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to left (363 feet), Antonacci scored.6–9
- 5Gray hit sacrifice fly to third, Martin scored, Caratini to second.4–9
- 5Keaschall hit sacrifice fly to right, Larnach scored, Martin to third.4–8
- 5Caratini singled to left, Bell scored, Martin to second, Larnach to third.4–7
- 5Martin singled to right, Clemens scored, Larnach to second, Bell to third.4–6
- 5Benintendi homered to right (406 feet).4–5
- 5Vargas homered to left center (409 feet), Nishida scored.3–5
- 4Gray homered to right center (384 feet), Martin scored, Caratini scored and Keaschall scored.1–5
- 3Benintendi singled to right, Antonacci scored.1–1
- 1Larnach singled to center, Lee scored, Clemens to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 56%
- ML CHW +119 / MIN -144
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.6%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- CHW +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | CHW: David Sandlin: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +18 Elo | MIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 15–1416th of 30 |
| 26th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 147127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–10 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 34–23–2 | 33–21–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 16–27 MIN in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 43.