Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vargas homered to left center (391 feet), Romo scored.3–4
- 10Short hit sacrifice fly to right, Vierling scored.3–2
- 9Nishida hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Benintendi scored on error, Peters to second, Peters safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Torkelson.2–2
- 3Vargas doubled to left, Acuña scored.2–1
- 3Dingler homered to left center (361 feet), Short scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML DET -108 / CHW -112
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHW -102
- DET +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −1 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Brandon Eisert: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +17 Elo | DET 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 308–21 | Road vs home | 17–118th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301481 | Elo rating | 146927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–33 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–21 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 25–18 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–3 | 33–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 26–13 CHW in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 39.