Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5McGonigle singled to center, Pérez scored and Torkelson scored, Short to third.4–1
- 4Basallo hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored.2–1
- 1Dingler homered to left (382 feet), McGonigle scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML DET +106 / BAL -127
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 46.3%, market 53.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -115
- DET +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −18 | DET: Troy Melton: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 14–1213th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–31 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27–3 | 28–21–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–11 BAL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.