Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Drew AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10McKinstry singled to right, Pérez scored.3–2
- 10Ramírez doubled to center, Martínez scored.3–1
- 10Martínez tripled to right, Rocchio scored.2–1
- 9Bailey grounded out to second, Schneemann scored, Bazzana to third.1–1
- 7Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, McGonigle scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML CLE -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 51.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Drew Anderson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +10 Elo | CLE 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 13–1010th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 8th of 301521 | Elo rating | 148918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–24 | 22–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 25–24 DET in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.
- May 19CLE 4 @ DET 3Picked CLE 59%Hit
- May 18CLE 8 @ DET 2Picked DET 59%Miss
- Oct 2DET 6 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Miss
- Oct 1DET 1 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Hit
- Sep 30DET 2 @ CLE 1PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Hit
- Sep 25DET 4 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 59%Miss
- Sep 24DET 1 @ CLE 5Picked CLE 57%Hit
- Sep 23DET 2 @ CLE 5Picked DET 59%Miss