Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Dane MyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez scored on error, Bazzana safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Phillips, DeLauter to second.4–7
- 7Martínez homered to right center (395 feet), Manzardo scored.4–6
- 6Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Martínez scored.4–4
- 6Kwan scored on Mey wild pitch, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Mey.4–3
- 6Kwan scored on Mey wild pitch, Martínez to third on wild pitch by Mey.4–3
- 5Steer doubled to center, Hayes scored and De La Cruz scored, Stewart thrown out at home.4–2
- 5Stewart walked, Dunn scored, De La Cruz to second, Hayes to third.2–2
- 3Myers homered to right (354 feet).1–2
- 2Rocchio singled to left, Kwan scored and Martínez scored, Hedges to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CIN +125 / CLE -151
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.9%, market 57.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +7 | CIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +56 Elo | CLE 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 57.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–109th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 151311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–19 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–16–1 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–6 CLE in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.