Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Guardians- David FryBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grissom singled to left, Neto scored.2–7
- 8Adell singled to center, Soler scored.1–7
- 3Bazzana doubled to left, Fry scored and Schneemann scored.0–7
- 3Schneemann singled to right, Hoskins scored and Manzardo scored, Fry to third.0–5
- 3Fry walked, DeLauter scored, Manzardo to second, Hoskins to third.0–3
- 2Rocchio singled to right, Manzardo scored and Schneemann scored, Bazzana to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML LAA +144 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.4%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -155
- LAA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | +4 | LAA: Brent Suter: team allows 1.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +59 Elo | CLE 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 29th of 301451 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–22 | 21–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–11 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.