Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday singled to right, Steer scored and Stewart scored.10–4
- 9Tena doubled to left, Nuñez scored.10–2
- 8House homered to center (393 feet), Ruiz scored.9–2
- 5Lile homered to right center (429 feet), House scored and Young scored.7–2
- 5García Jr. homered to right (375 feet).4–2
- 4Stephenson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stewart scored on fielding error by third baseman House, Benson to second, McLain to third.3–2
- 4McLain grounded into fielder's choice to second, De La Cruz scored, Bleday out at second, Stewart to third.3–1
- 4Lile homered to right (415 feet).3–0
- 3García Jr. homered to right (385 feet).2–0
- 3Wood homered to left center (396 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML WSH +124 / CIN -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.2%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +50 Elo | CIN 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 28th of 301455 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–13–3 | 24–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 11–8 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.