Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schneemann singled to center, Hoskins scored, Bazzana to second.2–4
- 5Neto homered to left (361 feet), Peraza scored.2–3
- 3DeLauter hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.0–3
- 1Fry grounded out to pitcher, Ramírez scored, DeLauter to second.0–2
- 1Martínez homered to left (378 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML LAA +131 / CLE -158
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.9%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.1 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +92 Elo | CLE 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 12–98th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 29th of 301448 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–13 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.