Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grissom homered to center (406 feet).2–3
- 7Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to right, Halpin scored, Martínez to third.1–3
- 6Adell hit sacrifice fly to center, Peraza scored.1–2
- 5Bailey grounded out to first, Schneemann scored.0–2
- 3Martínez homered to right (353 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML LAA +113 / CLE -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −21 | LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +59 Elo | CLE 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 11–912th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15068th of 30 |
| 29th of 301449 | Elo rating | 151211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 22–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 22–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–12 CLE in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.