Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Spencer Steer doubles (7) to left center field, on fan interference. Sal Stewart scores.8–7
- 10Lile homered to right center (409 feet), Abrams scored.8–6
- 5García Jr. grounded out to first, Young scored, Lile to third.6–6
- 3Friedl grounded into fielder's choice to second, Steer scored on throwing error by shortstop Abrams, Friedl to second, Lowe out at second.5–6
- 3Wiemer walked, Mead scored, Young to second, Abrams to third.5–5
- 2Ruiz homered to left (386 feet), Wiemer scored.4–5
- 2Wiemer doubled to right, Young scored.2–5
- 2Lile hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.1–5
- 1Stephenson homered to left center (406 feet), Bleday scored, Steer scored and Lowe scored.0–5
- 1Bleday doubled to right, De La Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 62%
- ML WSH +153 / CIN -186
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 57.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -165
- WSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +49 Elo | CIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 28th of 301459 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–18 | 24–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–13–3 | 25–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 12–8 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.