Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Martínez grounded out to first, Manzardo scored.7–6
- 9Bleday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Myers scored, Stewart out at second.7–5
- 8Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Bazzana scored.6–5
- 8Kwan walked, Martínez scored, Rocchio to second, Bazzana to third.6–4
- 8Rocchio walked, Manzardo scored, Bazzana to second, Martínez to third.6–3
- 8Bazzana singled to right, Hoskins scored, Martínez to second, Manzardo to third.6–2
- 8McLain homered to left center (377 feet), Steer scored.6–1
- 8Steer singled to left, Bleday scored.4–1
- 6Hoskins homered to left (382 feet).3–1
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Hayes scored.3–0
- 2Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to right, Steer scored, Lowe to third.2–0
- 2McLain walked, Bleday scored, Lowe to second, Steer to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML CIN +118 / CLE -142
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.5%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -128
- CIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 13–98th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Elo rating | 151410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–19 | 23–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–16–1 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–6 CLE in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.