Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-2
- Foster GriffinPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 7 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bleday singled to right, Benson scored, Stewart to third.1–15
- 8Myers homered to left center (385 feet), McLain scored and Hayes scored.1–14
- 8Millas scored on Mey wild pitch, House to second on wild pitch by Mey.1–11
- 8Millas scored on Mey wild pitch, House to second on wild pitch by Mey.1–11
- 7Bleday homered to right center (366 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–11
- 5Bleday homered to right center (394 feet), De La Cruz scored and Steer scored.0–9
- 4Hayes doubled to left, McLain scored and Trevino scored.0–6
- 4Trevino singled to center, Dunn scored and Steer scored, McLain to third.0–4
- 2McLain homered to center (400 feet), Steer scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML WSH +134 / CIN -162
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +9 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +34 Elo | CIN 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 4th of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 148828th of 30 |
| 28th of 301460 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–18 | 24–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–13–3 | 26–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 13–8 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.