Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Myers reached on infield single to third, Dunn scored.3–10
- 8Ramírez homered to center (407 feet), Rocchio scored.2–10
- 7Martínez homered to right (407 feet), Kwan scored.2–8
- 5Manzardo homered to right center (406 feet).2–6
- 4Rocchio homered to right center (388 feet).2–5
- 4Lowe singled to left, Steer scored, Stewart to second.2–4
- 3Manzardo homered to right (382 feet), DeLauter scored.1–4
- 3De La Cruz homered to left center (400 feet).1–2
- 1DeLauter homered to right (371 feet), Ramírez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML CIN +133 / CLE -161
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.0%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -144
- CIN +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +56 Elo | CLE 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 14–108th of 30 |
| 28th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 18th of 301491 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–20 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–16–1 | 24–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–7 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.