Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez homered to left (410 feet).8–2
- 8Vierling homered to left (400 feet).7–2
- 6Ramírez doubled to right, Kwan scored and Rocchio scored, Martínez to third.7–1
- 6Martínez singled to right, Bazzana scored, Rocchio to second, Kwan to third.5–1
- 5Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to left, Martínez scored.4–1
- 5DeLauter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rocchio scored, Ramírez out at second, Martínez to third.3–1
- 3Hoskins doubled to left, DeLauter scored.2–1
- 3DeLauter grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rocchio scored, Ramírez out at second.1–1
- 1Greene doubled to right, Dingler scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML CLE +134 / DET -162
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- DET: Elo 51.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- CLE +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −1 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 9th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–23 | 21–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–23 | 21–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 23–24 DET in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 47.
- Oct 2DET 6 @ CLE 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Miss
- Oct 1DET 1 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked CLE 55%Hit
- Sep 30DET 2 @ CLE 1PlayoffsPicked DET 60%Hit
- Sep 25DET 4 @ CLE 2Picked CLE 59%Miss
- Sep 24DET 1 @ CLE 5Picked CLE 57%Hit
- Sep 23DET 2 @ CLE 5Picked DET 59%Miss
- Sep 18CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 67%Miss
- Sep 17CLE 4 @ DET 0Picked DET 57%Miss