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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, CLEGuardians.TV, Tigers.TV

Away

Guardians

28-22

4–3

at

Home

Tigers

20-29

CLE 59%DET 41%

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Comerica Park · MLB.TV, CLEGuardians.TV, Tigers.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.

DET75%50%75%CLEStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Guardians
  • Travis BazzanaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers
  • Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Rocchio grounded out to shortstop, Kwan scored.4–3
  • 4Greene scored, Lee picked off second, Greene to third on pickoff error by catcher Hedges.3–3
  • 4Greene scored, Lee picked off second, Greene to third on pickoff error by catcher Hedges.3–3
  • 4Bazzana homered to right (358 feet), Manzardo scored.3–2
  • 2Torkelson homered to left center (380 feet), Greene scored.1–2
  • 2Kwan hit sacrifice fly to center, Manzardo scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Guardians 59%

LeanHit
CLE 59%DET 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
CLE 59%
ML CLE -163 / DET +135
Pre-line forecast
CLE 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CLE 53%
Ratings vs. market
−6.5 pts
CLE: Elo 52.8%, market 59.3%
Fair odds
CLE -146
DET +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CLE 4.4 – 3.6 DET
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCLEDETWhy
Team rating15201490Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+80CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCLE +20 EloCLE 52.8%
Market-implied ratingsCLE 52.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCLE 52.7%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCLE 59.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers compared, with each team's league rank
CLEStatDET
13th of 304.4Runs scored4.025th of 30
9th of 304.1Runs allowed4.413th of 30
7th of 30+0.4Margin−0.422nd of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 102–829th of 30
12th of 3012–12Road vs home13–99th of 30
15th of 301500Opponent Elo15059th of 30
9th of 301520Elo rating149018th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

GuardiansTigers
1450150015501600league averageAprAugDecAprAug

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCLEDET
Run line26–2321–27
Last 106–44–6
Favorite13–1310–17
Underdog13–1011–10
Overs–unders26–2322–24–2
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CLE 24–24 DET in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.