Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alexander doubled to center, Jackson scored.6–16
- 7Rutschman homered to center (419 feet).5–16
- 6Vilade singled to right, Díaz scored, Caminero to third.4–16
- 6Díaz doubled to center, Palacios scored and Walls scored.4–15
- 6Palacios singled to center, Fortes scored, Walls to third.4–13
- 5Caminero homered to right center (380 feet), Palacios scored and Díaz scored.4–12
- 5Aranda grounded out to shortstop, Walls scored, Díaz to second, Palacios to third.4–9
- 5Alonso doubled to center, Rutschman scored and Alexander scored.4–8
- 5Wilson homered to left (363 feet).2–8
- 4Orioles challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to third baseman Weston Wilson. Ryan Vilade scores.1–8
- 4Vilade tripled to center, Caminero scored.1–7
- 3Rutschman singled to left, Ward scored.1–6
- 2DeLuca doubled to center, Aranda scored and Caminero scored, Vilade to third.0–6
- 2Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, Aranda to second.0–4
- 2Díaz singled to right, Fortes scored and Walls scored.0–3
- 1Vilade hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML BAL +118 / TB -142
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- TB: Elo 60.4%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -128
- BAL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +11 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +73 Elo | TB 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 309–14 | Road vs home | 16–52nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–26 | 29–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 15–8 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19–2 | 23–19–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–8–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 24–15 TB in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 39.