Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Aranda doubled to center, Caminero scored.10–5
- 10Caminero doubled to center, Simpson scored and Walls scored.10–4
- 10Marlins challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Esteury Ruiz singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Javier Sanoja scores. Esteury Ruiz out at 2nd on the throw, left fie10–2
- 10Sanoja doubled to left, Marsee scored, Stowers scored and Norby scored.9–2
- 10Norby singled to left, Hicks scored, Stowers to second.6–2
- 10Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Edwards scored, Hicks to second.5–2
- 10Hicks singled to right, Mack scored and Ruiz scored, Edwards to third.4–2
- 9Fortes singled to left, Mullins scored.2–2
- 9Sanoja doubled to center, Marsee scored.2–1
- 7Hernández homered to left center (439 feet).1–1
- 3Simpson singled to left, Walls scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML MIA +113 / TB -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- TB: Elo 61.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +80 Elo | TB 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 15–41st of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–28 | 28–15 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 14–7 |
| Underdog | 7–12 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–17–2 | 21–19–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–10 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.