Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Rays- Cedric MullinsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesse ScholtensPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mullins homered to right (366 feet).2–7
- 6Marsee homered to right (394 feet).2–6
- 4Walls doubled to right, Feduccia scored and Mullins scored, Walls out stretching at third.1–6
- 2Walls grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mullins scored.1–4
- 2Feduccia hit sacrifice fly to left, Palacios scored, Mullins to third.1–3
- 2Norby homered to left center (412 feet).1–2
- 1Díaz homered to left (374 feet), Aranda scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML MIA +107 / TB -128
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- TB: Elo 54.9%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -116
- MIA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −18 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Jesse Scholtens: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +34 Elo | TB 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 306–12 | Road vs home | 14–42nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 25th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–27 | 27–15 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 13–7 |
| Underdog | 7–11 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17–2 | 20–19–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–9 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.