Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to center, O'Neill scored, Taveras to third.2–3
- 9Jackson hit sacrifice fly to right, Basallo scored.1–3
- 6Lile homered to right center (379 feet), Mead scored.0–3
- 4House hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML BAL -143 / WSH +119
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −14 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +17 Elo | BAL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 6–1330th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15104th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301481 | Elo rating | 145628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18–1 | 28–13–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–7 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.