Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson singled to center, Jackson scored.7–3
- 7Abrams reached on infield single to third, Wood scored, House to second.6–3
- 4Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored.6–2
- 4Cowser homered to right (394 feet), Taveras scored.6–1
- 3Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Ward scored.4–1
- 2Young homered to left (390 feet).3–1
- 2Mayo homered to left (407 feet), Basallo scored.3–0
- 1Henderson homered to right (397 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / WSH +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Richard Lovelady (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +18 Elo | WSH 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–14 | Road vs home | 8–1329th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 25th of 301476 | Elo rating | 146128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–26 | 27–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19–1 | 29–14–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–9 WSH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 16.