Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Samuel BasalloBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8House homered to left (369 feet), Mead scored.3–13
- 7Young homered to left (391 feet), Ruiz scored and Wiemer scored.3–11
- 7Ruiz singled to left, Abrams scored and Lile scored, Nuñez to second.3–8
- 7Orioles challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Daylen Lile reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Brady House scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.3–6
- 7House doubled to left, Wood scored.3–5
- 7Ward singled to left, Taveras scored, Henderson to second.3–4
- 7O'Neill homered to left (402 feet).2–4
- 7Basallo homered to right (376 feet).1–4
- 3Abrams doubled to right, Wood scored.0–4
- 2Ruiz homered to right (366 feet), Abrams scored and Nuñez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -113 / WSH -107
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.7%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -103
- WSH +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 5.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −14 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +19 Elo | BAL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–13 | Road vs home | 7–1330th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 145828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–25 | 26–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19–1 | 28–14–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–8 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.