Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stowers singled to center, Lopez scored.3–6
- 6Caminero walked, Mullins scored, Simpson to second, Walls to third.2–6
- 5Díaz homered to center (426 feet).2–5
- 4Walls tripled to center, DeLuca scored, Mullins scored and Fortes scored.2–4
- 3Lopez singled to right, Edwards scored.2–1
- 3Edwards singled to center, Caissie scored.1–1
- 1Caminero homered to left (372 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML MIA +123 / TB -149
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 58.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- MIA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +59 Elo | TB 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 15–52nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 15189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–28 | 28–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 14–8 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–17–2 | 22–19–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–10 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.