Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cowser homered to center (440 feet), Holliday scored and Taveras scored.3–5
- 8Ward singled to center, Jackson scored.3–2
- 8Torkelson reached on infield single to first, Dingler scored, Vierling to second.3–1
- 6Henderson homered to right (368 feet).2–1
- 4Keith hit sacrifice fly to right, Dingler scored.2–0
- 4Vierling singled to center, McGonigle scored, Dingler to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML DET +105 / BAL -126
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.7%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +12 Elo | BAL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 13–1215th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–30 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27–2 | 28–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–10 BAL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.