Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Hunter FeducciaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vilade stole home, Palacios stole second.3–5
- 8Vilade stole home, Palacios stole second.3–5
- 8Palacios singled to right, Aranda scored, Vilade to third.3–4
- 8Aranda doubled to center, Dunn scored and Simpson scored.3–3
- 6Basallo homered to right (400 feet).3–1
- 6Alonso homered to right (374 feet).2–1
- 3Alonso singled to left, Ward scored, Henderson to second.1–1
- 2Feduccia homered to center (421 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML BAL -103 / TB -117
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.8 pts
- TB: Elo 59.4%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -106
- BAL +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −3 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Steven Matz: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +66 Elo | TB 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 18–51st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150312th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–28 | 31–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 17–8 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20–2 | 24–20–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 24–17 TB in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.