Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Alonso hit sacrifice fly to left, Henderson scored.4–7
- 4Holliday homered to left (337 feet), Cowser scored.4–6
- 4Taveras scored on a balk, Cowser to second on a balk.4–4
- 4Taveras scored on a balk, Cowser to second on a balk.4–4
- 4Lee reached on infield single to third, Torkelson scored, McKinstry to second.4–3
- 4McKinstry grounded into fielder's choice to first, Greene scored, Torkelson third.3–3
- 3Alonso homered to right (391 feet), Holliday scored and Henderson scored.2–3
- 3Lee doubled to left, Workman scored.2–0
- 1McGonigle homered to right center (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML DET +109 / BAL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.7%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | 0 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Keegan Akin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +19 Elo | BAL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 30th of 307–19 | Road vs home | 12–1217th of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 147326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–29 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–19 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 10–14 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27–2 | 27–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–9 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.