Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Trout doubled to center, Neto scored and Walton scored.7–1
- 8Soler singled to left, Grissom scored.5–1
- 8Grissom doubled to center, Trout scored, Grissom to third.4–1
- 5Grissom hit sacrifice fly to center, Walton scored, Neto to third.3–1
- 5Neto doubled to left, Rivero scored, Walton to third.2–1
- 5Rivero singled to left, Adell scored.1–1
- 2Pérez homered to right center (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML LAA +113 / DET -136
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 55.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −17 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 14–1314th of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301443 | Elo rating | 148420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–31 | 24–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–11 | 11–20 |
| Underdog | 22–20 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30 | 24–29–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–12 DET in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 22.