Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peraza singled to left, Adell scored and Soler scored, Peraza to second, Siri to third.2–5
- 7Higashioka homered to center (395 feet).2–3
- 5Schanuel doubled to right, Neto scored.1–3
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Osuna scored, Carter to third.1–2
- 1Trout homered to center (411 feet), Neto scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -137 / LAA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +13 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +53 Elo | TEX 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 10–1628th of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 143829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–28 | 23–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders | 19–27–4 | 25–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–16 LAA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 40.