Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung singled to left, Foscue scored, Osuna to third.5–4
- 9Pederson scored on a passed ball by Sullivan, Osuna to second, Foscue to third.4–4
- 9Pederson scored on a passed ball by Sullivan, Osuna to second on passed ball by Sullivan, Foscue to third on passed ball by Sullivan.4–4
- 5Johnston singled to center, Freeman scored.3–4
- 5Freeman singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–3
- 4Kyle Karros challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Kyle Karros walks. Troy Johnston scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 3rd. Edouard Julien to 2nd.3–2
- 4Burger homered to left (409 feet).3–1
- 4Duran homered to left (373 feet), Jung scored.2–1
- 1Rumfield singled to right, McCarthy scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -123 / COL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 64.9%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.1 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −15 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +106 Elo | TEX 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 10–1427th of 30 |
| 7th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–26 | 25–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26–4 | 23–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 7–4 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.