Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Peyton GrayPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Osuna grounded into fielder's choice to third, Jansen scored, Foscue to second, Duran out at third.6–7
- 8Duran singled to center, Burger scored and Jung scored, Jansen to third.5–7
- 6Castro doubled to right, Fulford scored.3–7
- 6Foscue doubled to center, Duran scored.3–6
- 5Foscue homered to center (425 feet).2–6
- 4Rumfield singled to center, Doyle scored.1–6
- 4Doyle singled to center, Fulford scored.1–5
- 3Goodman scored and Tovar scored on error, Karros safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Jung, Karros out stretching at second.1–4
- 2Foscue doubled to center, Duran scored.1–2
- 1Tovar doubled to left, Castro scored and Doyle scored, Rumfield to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -138 / COL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.7%, market 55.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +6 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +68 Elo | TEX 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 9–1327th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–25 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 24–22 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26–3 | 22–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–3 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.