Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting2-4
- Tanner GordonPitching6.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran doubled to left, Haggerty scored, Jung to third.10–0
- 7Pederson singled to left, Jansen scored.9–0
- 5Foscue hit sacrifice fly to center, Carter scored.8–0
- 4Nimmo homered to center (425 feet), Foscue scored.7–0
- 2Burger singled to right, Jung scored, Duran to third.5–0
- 2Duran singled to left, Nimmo scored, Jung to second.4–0
- 2Nimmo singled to right, Pederson scored.3–0
- 1Duran doubled to right, McCutchen scored and Nimmo scored, Jung to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 50%
- ML TEX -108 / COL -112
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- COL: Elo 40.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 5.0 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +5 | TEX: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Sammy Peralta (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +64 Elo | TEX 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 10–1327th of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 140930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–26 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26–3 | 23–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–4 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.