Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soderstrom tripled to left, Kurtz scored.6–5
- 9McNeil homered to right (364 feet).5–5
- 7Kurtz singled to center, Hernaiz scored, Cortes thrown out at third.4–5
- 2Lowe homered to center (426 feet), O'Hoppe scored.3–5
- 2Adell homered to left center (419 feet).3–3
- 2Cortes singled to left, Bolte scored on fielding error by left fielder Lowe, Cortes to second, Hernaiz safe at third on error.3–2
- 1Soler homered to left center (432 feet), Trout scored.2–2
- 1Soderstrom singled to center, Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored, Rooker to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML ATH -125 / LAA +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 58.2%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -113
- LAA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −20 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +57 Elo | ATH 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 9–1429th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301487 | Elo rating | 143729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 21–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 22–7 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 22–23–3 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 19–22 LAA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 41.