Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernaiz singled to right, Gelof scored.14–6
- 8Lowe doubled to left, O'Hoppe scored and Schanuel scored.13–6
- 8Rooker homered to left center (406 feet), Kurtz scored.13–4
- 8Kurtz doubled to right, Langeliers scored and McNeil scored.11–4
- 7Gelof homered to right center (377 feet).9–4
- 6Kurtz singled to center, Heim scored and Hernaiz scored, Langeliers to third.8–4
- 4Grissom singled to left, Neto scored and Siri scored, Trout to third.6–4
- 4Jonah Heim challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Mike Trout walks. Oswald Peraza scores. Jose Siri to 3rd. Zach Neto to 2nd.6–2
- 3Trout homered to center (410 feet).6–1
- 3Gelof singled to center, Rooker scored and Bolte scored.6–0
- 3Rooker singled to left, Thomas scored.4–0
- 3Thomas doubled to right, Kurtz scored and Hernaiz scored.3–0
- 3Kurtz singled to center, McNeil scored, Hernaiz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 56%
- ML ATH +118 / LAA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.8%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -128
- ATH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −3 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +16 Elo | ATH 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 9–1328th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301484 | Elo rating | 144029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–21 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–14 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders | 21–23–3 | 22–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–22 LAA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 40.