Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to center (413 feet), Siri scored.1–2
- 9Butler singled to center, Gelof scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML ATH -129 / LAA +107
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.7%, market 53.8%
- Fair odds
- ATH -117
- LAA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.7 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +33 Elo | ATH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −1.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 8–1328th of 30 |
| 9th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 143929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–20 | 20–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 21–7 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22–3 | 22–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 18–21 LAA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 39.