Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 5 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani doubled to right, Kim scored, Muncy scored and T. Hernández scored.15–2
- 9T. Hernández reached on infield single to third, Pages scored, Muncy to second.12–2
- 9Muncy grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Smith scored on error, Pages safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Manoah, Pages safe at third on error.11–2
- 8Betts homered to left (366 feet).10–2
- 8Ohtani tripled to right, Ohtani scored on throwing error by right fielder Adell, Muncy scored, Call scored and Ohtani scored on error. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was upheld.9–2
- 6Adell doubled to center, Neto scored and Soler scored.6–2
- 6Call singled to left, Muncy scored and Pages scored, T. Hernández to second.6–0
- 6T. Hernández hit by pitch, Smith scored, Muncy to second, Pages to third.4–0
- 6Muncy walked, Freeman scored, Pages to second, Smith to third.3–0
- 6Pages walked, Betts scored, Smith to second, Freeman to third.2–0
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -136 / LAA +113
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +19 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +70 Elo | LAD 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 8–1128th of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 1st of 301560 | Elo rating | 144529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–23 | 20–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–23 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | — | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26–1 | 20–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 7–8 LAA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.