Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will KleinPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-1
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6T. Hernández homered to right center (372 feet), Muncy scored.6–0
- 4Muncy homered to right (383 feet).4–0
- 4Pages homered to center (407 feet), Smith scored and Tucker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -193 / LAA +158
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −20 | LAD: Will Klein (no track record yet) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +107 Elo | LAD 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 8–1026th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15086th of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 144729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–23 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–23 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | — | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25–1 | 20–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–8 LAA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.