Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Grayson RodriguezPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández singled to center, Tucker scored.10–1
- 9Tucker doubled to right, Kim scored and Pages scored.9–1
- 4Moncada singled to right, Schanuel scored.7–1
- 4Tucker singled to center, Freeman scored, Pages to third.7–0
- 4Pages singled to left, Kim scored and Ohtani scored, Freeman to second.6–0
- 4Ohtani singled to right, Rojas scored and T. Hernández scored, Kim to third.4–0
- 2Kim singled to right, Muncy scored, Rushing to third.2–0
- 2Rojas hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored, Muncy to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -149 / LAA +123
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +10 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.130th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 30 |
| 27th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15113rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 144229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–23 | 20–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | — | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26–1 | 21–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–8 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.