Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jansen homered to left (408 feet).6–9
- 8Schanuel singled to right, Trout scored.5–9
- 8Neto homered to left center (427 feet).5–8
- 7Peraza homered to left center (418 feet).5–7
- 7Nimmo doubled to right, McCutchen scored, Jung thrown out at home.5–6
- 6Foscue singled to left, Burger scored.4–6
- 4Carter tripled to center, Burger scored and Foscue scored.3–6
- 4Nimmo homered to center (436 feet).1–6
- 3O'Hoppe singled to left, Schanuel scored and Soler scored, Meckler to second.0–6
- 1Meckler homered to right center (403 feet), Trout scored and Soler scored.0–4
- 1Neto homered to left (398 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML TEX -163 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -146
- LAA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +66 Elo | TEX 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 9–1629th of 30 |
| 9th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 143629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–27 | 22–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27–4 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–15 LAA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 39.