Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Zack Gelof grounds into a force out to shortstop, Nick Kurtz scores. Brent Rooker to 3rd. Tyler Soderstrom to 2nd.3–2
- 7Hernaiz singled to left, Gelof scored.2–2
- 6Kurtz singled to center, Langeliers scored.1–2
- 1Schanuel homered to right (392 feet), Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML ATH +101 / LAA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.7%, market 52.5%
- Fair odds
- LAA -110
- ATH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +30 Elo | ATH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 9–1529th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301488 | Elo rating | 143629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–22 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 22–7 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 23–23–3 | 24–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 20–22 LAA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 42.