Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peraza grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walton scored on throwing error by second baseman Foscue, Adell out at second.1–2
- 3Trout singled to right, Rivero scored, Frazier to third.1–1
- 2Burger homered to center (407 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML TEX +104 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 42.9%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -113
- TEX +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −13 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +49 Elo | TEX 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 11–1627th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301507 | Elo rating | 144129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–29 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28–4 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–17 LAA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 41.